Manteca — coming off its second highest year ever for single family home building with 1,130 housing permits issued — is likely to surpass 100,000 residents sometime in 2028.
In the fiscal year ending June 30, the city issued 1,130 permits for new single family homes.
Toss in the 100-unit affordable housing project that got underway several months ago off of North Main Street’s intersection with Lancaster Drive behind the Moose Lodge, there were 1,230 overall permits issued for housing units last year.
That is the second highest year on record after 1,306 homes were built in the fiscal year ending on June 30, 2024.
Manteca has now built or issued permits for 3,408 single family homes in three years — 972 in 2023-2023, 1,306 in 2023-2024, and 1,130 in 2024-2025.
That is 3,408 new homes in three years.
Based on the occupancy yield of 3.11 per home that the city uses, that translates into 10,598 more residents.
The city is now at 95,000 residents.
To put the past three years in perspective, Manteca has added roughly 66 percent of the entire 16,000 population in the last 36 months.
Assuming half of the homes issued permits last year haven’t been completed and Manteca issues permits for 600 new homes in 2025-2026 and 600 again in 2026-2027, the Family City will surpass 100,000 residents sometime in 2028.
The pace of new home building has no signs of a significant slowing down on the near horizon.
That’s due to national builders that build homes ahead of contracts being signed.
New lots are being created with streets and infrastructure currently on all four edges of the city, They represent the potential for another 1,300 homes.
There is somewhere between 5,000 and 6,000 lots in subdivisions that have been approved or are in the review process.
Manteca, 26 years ago, with a population of 62,691 was the 146th largest out of 482 cities in California.
The Family City is now the state’s 82nd largest municipality as of Jan. 1, according to the California Department of Finance.
California now has 483 cities after Mountain House incorporated on July 1 of last year as San Joaquin County’s eighth city.
Lathrop was the fastest growing city in San Joaquin County with a 4 percent gain in population to reach 38,596 residents. Lathrop was the 9th fastest growing city in California.
Manteca continues a streak extending more than a decade as being the San Joaquin County city with the largest year-to-year population gain.
The city added 1,617 residents in calendar year 2024 making it the county’s second fastest growing city and 75th fastest growing in the state. Lathrop added 1,494 residents in 2024.
Only one other city gained population in San Joaquin County. That was Lodi that added 591 people to push its population to 67,953.
Every other city in the county dropped slightly in population. Included was Ripon that lost 1.3 percent of its population going from 15,966 to 15,753.
Manteca became California’s 100th largest city with a population of 84,800 in 2020. It was the 103rd largest city in 2018 and 116th largest in 2017.
While Manteca is now the state’s 82nd largest city, Tracy is the 78th largest and Lathrop the 210th largest.
California’s population grew by 108,000 persons in calendar year 2024 to reach 39,529,000 people as of Jan. 1, 2025 according to new data reported Thursday by the California Department of Finance.
To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com